November 14, 2016
The implications of Brexit are raising concerns over a reduction in employers’ intentions to invest in their staff and its effects on access to migrant labour. As a result, according to the latest quarterly CIPD/Adecco Group Labour Market Outlook, while employment growth looks set to continue in the UK, there are signs that this is beginning to slow and that real wages are likely to fall during 2017 for many employees. The data shows that the net employment balance, while remaining in positive territory at +22, based on the difference between the share of employers expanding their workforce and the share of employers reducing their workforce, has shown a slight negative decline from the previous quarter’s figure of +27. Although 42 percent of employers believe that future restrictions on EU labour could damage their UK operations, just 15 percent have started to prepare for this eventuality; which is probably why the vast majority are against a ‘hard Brexit’.
Real wages look set to fall during 2017 as, for the second quarter running, employers anticipate median basic pay settlements of just 1.1 percent for the 12 months ahead, against a backdrop of anticipated higher inflation.
In this context, it is not surprising that just 6 percent of employers said they favour a ‘hard Brexit’ which would see the introduction of World Trade Organisation rules. The majority of employers broadly favour existing trading arrangements (16 percent), a European Economic Area type arrangement including free movement of labour (26 percent), or negotiated bilateral free trade arrangements (10 percent).
Commenting on the findings, Gerwyn Davies, Labour Market Analyst at the CIPD, said: “The report points to the UK economy beginning to face some likely headwinds following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. The impact of potential restrictions to migrant labour will certainly be exacerbated by the fall we’re seeing in business investment intentions.
“Given the current level of uncertainty and the projected increases in costs as a result of a weaker pound, it’s not surprising that employers aren’t currently persuaded to respond to likely controls on migration by investing more in skills. However, this will put further pressure on the UK’s productivity growth potential, which is critical to employers’ ability to afford more generous pay increases. Pay expectations are already weak, and as inflation moves up we can expect a period of low or negative real wage growth for the squeezed middle.
“From all of the information we have, it’s inevitable that there will be restrictions on EU migrant labour after the UK leaves the EU and employers must be prepared for this. It’s vital that the UK government considers making intermediate arrangements when introducing changes to immigration policy. This will ensure that employers that have come to depend on EU migrants to deal with recruitment difficulties or skills shortages have time to review their recruitment and training and development strategies ahead of Brexit.”
The survey also shows that employers are already reporting that it will be harder to recruit and retain EU migrant workers even before the UK officially leaves the UK. Of the two thirds (62 percent) of employers that employ migrant workers, almost a quarter (23 percent) of employers say they have evidence that EU migrants are already considering leaving the UK in the next 12 months as a result of Brexit. Furthermore, more than half (54 percent) of those who have intentions to recruit EU migrants over the next 12 months believe it will be harder to recruit EU migrants in the year ahead.
Among the 15 percent of employers that have started planning for the likelihood that it will become harder to recruit EU nationals in the future, 43 percent say they have started strategic workforce planning, 39 percent report they are undertaking a review of the organisation’s resourcing strategy, while 22 percent say they are planning to start investing in or increasing their investment in apprenticeships, and a similar proportion report they are looking to build closer links with schools and colleges.
The Labour Market Outlook also finds that almost a third of employers (30 percent) expect that the UK’s vote to leave the EU will increase their costs over the next three months, which may partly explain why employers are more likely to be planning to reduce (15 percent) rather increase (9 percent) investment in skills and the continued squeeze on wages.
To access the full report click here.