A new approach is needed to tackle ill health and economic inactivity, report argues

A ‘whole-of-government approach’ is needed to tackle the causes of ill health, increase economic activity and reduce NHS demand, a new report from the NHS Confederation and Boston Consulting Group claims. According to the report, “Improving our Nation’s Health: A Whole-of-Government Approach to Tackling the Causes of Long-Term Sickness and Economic Inactivity”, reintegrating between half and three-quarters of people who have dropped out of the workforce for reasons of ill health since 2020 could deliver an estimated £109-177 billion boost to the UK’s GDP (2-3 per cent in 2029) and unlock £35-57 billion in fiscal revenue over the next five years.

Since 2020, economic inactivity in the UK has risen by 900,000, with 85 percent of this due to those who are long-term sick. The UK is an outlier among its peers over this period. According to the report, the causes of ill health and labour inactivity are multi-faceted, which is why the authors of the report argue that the new administration needs to break down the departmental silos that ‘have held back the collaboration that is needed and why we believe that the Prime Minister’s promised Mission Board for Health should be central to driving forward this ambition, including with a new Health Improvement Strategy’.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said: “The UK faces a series of enormous health challenges as seen in the sharp rise in the number of people out of the workforce due to long-term sickness.

“This spike has defied European trends and requires both additional investment in the NHS alongside coordinated and sustained action across government departments focused on building the nation’s health. There is broad consensus that the NHS requires major transformation to respond to the changing needs of its patients, to be financially sustainable and to achieve better outcomes. However, this cannot be realised that without more money and without tackling what is contributing to such high levels of demand today.

“No single part of government can solve this alone. Our report with the Boston Consulting Group offers a blueprint for how a ‘whole of government’ approach can be taken forward, chiefly through the Prime Minister’s Mission Boards for Health and for Growth and the development of a much-needed Health Improvement Strategy, which considers the broad range of factors that determine outcomes.

“Getting this right will lead to a more productive NHS, support more people to be in work and provide a major boost to the economy. Failure risks rising waiting lists and the proportion of public spending spent on the NHS crowding out other forms of investment, which will then only weigh down the economy.”

The report also suggests that students have become one of the largest contributors to long-term sickness. In the 2021-22 period, 63,392 individuals transitioned directly from being economically inactive due to studying to being inactive due to long-term sickness, a significant increase from 36,866 in 2019-20. After accounting for those moving in the opposite direction, students increased inactivity numbers by a net of 42,300, up from 12,700 in 2019-201.

While the rate had fluctuated before the pandemic, the figures indicate a 24 percent rise since 2014 and an average annual net increase of 5.5 percent. The number of students transitioning into long-term sickness has been rising, while those moving from sickness to study have remained relatively constant2.

Raoul Ruparel, the report’s author, stated: “The number of 16-24-year-olds who are long-term sick inactive with multiple conditions has grown by 18 percent since pre-Covid, making them the fastest-growing group out of the workforce. This increase is largely driven by a surge in mental health conditions post-Covid. It is no coincidence that the number of individuals moving directly from being students to being economically inactive has grown rapidly — these flows have more than tripled since pre-Covid.”

He added that this growing trend “paints a concerning picture. Not only is this supposed to be the healthiest segment of the population, but those who spend a prolonged period out of work at the start of their career have been shown to have significantly lower income and productivity for the rest of their lives.”