Accurate feedback doesn’t necessarily dent people’s overconfidence

A new study suggests that overconfidence can persist even in situations where people receive frequent and accurate feedback about their performance. The findings, published in The Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, raise questions about how effectively feedback mechanisms improve self-awareness in professional settings. Researchers analysed data from 3,388 competitive chess players across 22 countries. Chess provides a clear test of confidence and self-assessment because performance is tracked continuously through the Elo rating system, which adjusts after every match. Players have access to detailed, objective feedback, allowing them to compare their results with others and track progress over time.

Participants were asked to report their current rating, estimate their “true” level of ability, and predict how they would perform in a series of hypothetical 10-game matches against players of varying skill levels. The results showed a consistent pattern of overconfidence. Most players believed their true ability exceeded their official rating, and many predicted match outcomes that were more optimistic than their past results would support.

Follow-up data collected several months later revealed little change in these self-perceptions. Despite receiving new and accurate feedback through updated ratings, most participants maintained the belief that they were stronger players than the evidence indicated. The researchers found that overconfidence was most pronounced among less skilled players, while higher-rated competitors showed more accurate self-assessment. This pattern reflects the Dunning–Kruger effect, in which limited expertise can lead to inflated confidence.

According to the researchers, the persistence of overconfidence may stem from how people interpret feedback rather than from a lack of information. Individuals may selectively focus on results that confirm their self-beliefs while discounting evidence that contradicts them. The study demonstrates that even in environments where performance data are transparent and continuous, people often maintain overly positive views of their own abilities.

These findings suggest that self-perception and objective performance can remain misaligned even under ideal feedback conditions. The research adds to a growing body of evidence showing that overconfidence is a durable cognitive bias, one that can influence decision-making and behaviour in many areas where accuracy and judgment are important.

Source: British Psychological Society Research Digest