Economic and political uncertainty continue to dampen commercial property market sentiment

The outlook for the European commercial property market is cautiously optimistic despite growing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about economic growth, with London, Madrid and Paris emerging as the standout performers, according to a new report by PwC and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). The report – Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2025 outlines how market players believe ‘a new normal’ is emerging as valuations have come down and interest rates regain some level of predictability in a market characterised by higher inflation and interest rates, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties. This led to more than 80 percent of survey respondents expecting business confidence and profits to stay the same or rise in 2025, with around half predicting increases in both.

However, there are strong caveats to this overall optimism, and sentiment remains clouded among the 1,143  respondents. In addition to concerns about economic growth, there are fears of growing geopolitical uncertainty, with 85 percent citing political instability (up from 74 percent the year before) and 83 percent the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East as sources of considerable volatility.

There is recognition that European real estate sentiment is, in large part, still influenced by interest rate policies in the US and at home and shifting political order in Asia. Adopting a three-to-five-year view, some leaders believe that recovery could take longer than experts have previously predicted. European and global economic growth are among the chief business concerns for 2025, with 77 percent and 62 percent respectively either “very” or “somewhat concerned” about these factors.

In tandem with an uncertain geopolitical and economic landscape, real estate business issues that continue to stifle development include the impact of increased regulation, which at 74 percent percent now ranks as the top real estate business concern in EMEA, and construction costs and resource availability the number two concern, at 70 percent.

The report also suggests that reduced tenant demand remains an issue for 44 percent of survey respondents, although that has fallen from 48 percent last year, and 42 percent of respondents are still expecting challenges to the occupier markets, even after a three-to-five-year window of recovery.

This year’s survey highlights that ESG remains one of the most significant challenges for real estate both in the short and long-term, with more than 70 percent of respondents concerned about environmental issues in 2025, and 72 percent flagging this as an issue for the next five years. Many admitted they are struggling to keep competing environmental concerns top of the agenda, and the survey interviews also reveal a  degree of industry ‘push back’ over ESG.

Other trending topics include artificial intelligence (AI), with nearly half of survey respondents or their companies having used AI in the past year. The vast majority expect AI and machine learning to have an impact on all areas of real estate over the next five years.

However, digital risks also constitute a major industry concern, with 59 percent of respondents naming cybersecurity as a top business concern, ranking fourth overall, with digital transformation (42 percent) and AI (35 percent) also among the top industry concerns. Over a five-year period, this risk rises as a priority among 63 percent, becoming the second most important business issue.

The availability of capital remains critical in a real estate market where investor interest is subdued following global uncertainty, the reality of a new “economic normal” and the evolving needs of real estate occupiers. Despite value falls in real estate, many institutional investors continue to contend with denominator effect issues around slower revaluation of real estate which may prevent further investment opportunities. There is also a sense among respondents that real estate investment generally still must prove its worth next to other more secure asset classes such as long-term bonds.

Among the sectors to watch, data centres ranked first in the overall investment and development prospects for European real estate, followed by new energy infrastructure, student housing and logistics. This reflects investors continuing to focus on major trends including demographics, digitalization and decarbonisation, and a real estate industry looking to chart new horizons. However, lack of suitable stock continues to be an issue for many sectors including in logistics, storage and various forms of housing, and some are concerned that prices are inflated by over-optimistic growth assumptions. Finally, the outlook for office and retail investment remains subdued following continuing caution about the impact of structural change.

London and Paris continue to dominate European real estate investment, ranking first and third respectively for overall prospects for 2025. London retains the top position for a fourth consecutive year, and despite slipping to third place, Paris remains a strong market boosted by Olympic-driven investment and major infrastructure projects being planned. In the first nine months of 2024, these two cities combined accounted for 11 percent of total European transaction values, or around €14 billion of investment, according to data from MSCI. Madrid’s rise to second place highlights the appeal of strong macroeconomic factors and quality of life.

Elsewhere in the top ten, the German cities of Munich (5), Frankfurt (8) and Hamburg (9) have all risen in the rankings, with Berlin (4) maintaining its position. Additionally, Lisbon (10) has dropped two places, though Milan (7) and Amsterdam (6) have both secured strong positions.

Finally, while physical climate risk and real estate’s transition to net-zero carbon emissions have proven recurring issues previously, this year’s report also examines the far-reaching implications for real estate insurance and finance from these twin challenges.

As real estate faces increased risks from the rising frequency and severity of extreme weather events alongside the transition to net zero, the impact on the industry is becoming clearer in terms of financial costs and business interruption, and nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an increase in insurance costs over the next five years. While the issues around the insurance and financing of real estate from climate risks are widely acknowledged, the report found that current levels of industry awareness and collaboration do not reflect the scale and urgency of the challenge.