Chance plays a huge role in career success, report confirms

If you’ve ever thought that the success or otherwise of a career is a little or largely dependent on getting the right breaks at the right time, new research from academics in the UK and France may confirm it. The study examines the role of chance events, whether positive or negative, on managers’ career success across Europe. While positive chance events typically have a positive impact on careers, 71 percent of those having experienced a negative chance event report nevertheless a positive impact on their careers.

 Luck and serendipity play at least some part in professional success. Such luck can arise from being in the right place at the right time, having a chance meeting, or some other unexpected event. Most managerial studies tend to focus on factors that might lead to professional success, drawing career roadmaps for linear progression, ignoring the role of chance events and the way they might affect careers.

To fill this gap, Celine Legrand, Christine Naschberger (Audencia), Yehuda Baruch (Audencia and Southampton Business School) and Nikos Bozionelos (EM Lyon Business School) carried out research among a large sample of managerial professionals, to uncover to what extent chance events had influenced their careers. A total of 682 managers were surveyed.

The participants were asked three questions: the prevalence and nature of various chance events, its perceived impact on their careers, and how their individual characteristics related to chance events and career outcomes.

The majority (62.17 percent 424 of the 682 participants) experienced a chance event that significantly influenced their careers. Of these, 414 indicated the nature of the event and its impact. 320 respondents (77.29 percent) reported having experienced positive chance events whilst 94 (22.71 percent) experienced negative chance events.

The research team identified four scenarios:

1. A negative event leading to a positive impact, perhaps the most intriguing case, this outcome still applied to most of those experiencing negative events: 71.28 percent (67 respondents out of 94) experienced a negative chance event but reported a positive career impact. Negative events ranged from restructuring, downsizing, sudden closure of an organization to issues such as a toxic new manager. The positive outcomes ranged from adopting a new career stance to changing company or sector that proved beneficial for the career.
2. A negative event leading to a negative impact:  28.72 percent (27 respondents out of 94) reported cases of negative events with negative impact. As in the first scenario, negative events included company restructuring, loss of one’s job, and problems in relationships with superiors including serious disagreement with top management. Negative outcomes included difficulties in finding a job of similar standing, a blocked career path or unfavourable change of role and deterioration of employment conditions.
3. A negative event leading to a negative impact:  28.72 percent (27 respondents out of 94) reported cases of negative events with negative impact. As in the first scenario, negative events included company restructuring, loss of one’s job, and problems in relationships with superiors including serious disagreement with top management. Negative outcomes included difficulties in finding a job of similar standing, a blocked career path or unfavourable change of role and deterioration of employment conditions.
4. A positive event leading to a positive impact: the most prevalent case:  96.88 percent (310 respondents out of 320) indicated positive outcomes resulting from positive chance events, with a male/female ratio of 56.77 percent/43.23 percent. Positive events included chance professional encounters that led to opportunities for career development in terms of further networking, coaching, mentoring or information about job openings. Positive career outcomes ranged from a promotion to new career challenges, boosting the employee’s confidence.

Chance events had played an important part in the professional career of more than six out of ten of our participants. In terms of negative chance events, in over 70 percent of the cases, a negative event had a positive eventual impact on the career. Another interesting point is that those who did not report any significant chance events tended to earn less and have lower status than the average, though they had lower incidences of burnout and higher levels of psychological well-being at work.

The insights regarding the role of chance events in careers can not only increase our understanding of career progression but also be used to develop guidelines and advice for individuals and organisations. Chance events can be a major catalyst for careers. They can lead to career shocks and influence professional development from the early career stages. So, it is important to recognise and take into account this phenomenon and not continue to view careers as a simply linear progression.