January 22, 2019
London remains top gateway city in the world for commercial property investors
London maintained its position as the top city for global real estate investment in 2018, according to research published today by JLL. The report claims that investors continue to favour cities they are familiar with and that have well-established investment markets and high levels of transparency. Well-known, large gateway cities with the world’s deepest concentrations of capital, companies and talent continue to dominate the top ranks. Twelve cities–London, New York, Paris, Seoul, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai, Washington DC, Sydney, Singapore, Toronto and Munich–have appeared in the top 30 ranking every year for the past decade and account for 30 percent of all real estate investment. More →
There was a record-breaking rate of take-up within the regional office occupier markets outside of London and the South East in 2018, with few signs of Brexit-related uncertainty, according to an analysis by CBRE. Across the ten regional cities monitored by CBRE, provisional analysis shows that overall take-up reached nearly 7.3m sq ft. This level was 16 percent above the five-year average and 6 percent higher than 2017, the previous record-breaking year. The majority of regional office demand has again been driven by the business and professional services sectors. 2018 saw record take-up from flexible office operators across the UK, representing the leading portion of business services take-up. This was the year the co-working revolution surged into regional cities. Birmingham, Bristol and Glasgow were all stand out expansion locations. With more demand from flexible workspace operators – both from established and new entrants, further expansion is anticipated in 2019 albeit at a further pace as markets become more saturated.
An acute lack of supply in Edinburgh’s city centre will push up office rents to over £35 per sq ft in 2019 according to the latest estimates by Savills, which suggests that rental increases and lack of supply may cause certain organisations to consider opportunities on the city’s western periphery. The latest research from the firm shows office take-up in Edinburgh in 2018 totalled 950,000 sq ft – 18 percent ahead of the 10-year annual average – as the city continues to see robust levels of demand from across a number of key sectors and a continued focus amongst occupiers on the city centre. However, despite strong occupier demand, there was a decline in office take-up in 2018, compared to 2017 (1.04 million sq ft) which the firm attributes to a lack of good quality, city centre office supply. Edinburgh’s city centre office availability has been reducing since 2012 and take-up activity during 2018 has seen the majority of new developments being wholly or partially pre-let. This lack of supply is forcing an increasing number of occupiers to re-gear leases on existing offices against a lack of alternative options.
The Northern Ireland office market had a record year in 2018, with a 100 percent increase in take-up, according to the latest figures from CBRE. The Northern Ireland (NI) office sector enjoyed its most successful year on record with 885,023 sq ft of take-up reported across 84 transactions, more than double that achieved last year. Notable office deals completed in 2018 included the PwC move to Merchant Square, Northern Ireland Civil Service at 9 Lanyon Place, Allstate at Mays Meadow, TLT at River House and Baker McKenzie at City Quays 2, which is part of Belfast’s City Quays mixed-use regeneration project. However, according to CBRE’s Real Estate Outlook report, the office market in NI is hampered by a severe lack of investment deals in the face of ongoing local, national and international political uncertainty. This means that while the real estate market in Northern Ireland generally has performed well in 2018, the investment sector experienced a decrease in activity as a resulting knock-on effect of the current political situation locally at Stormont as well as ongoing Brexit negotiations.
Office investment volume in Central London in 2018 is expected to come close to £20 billion, despite the ongoing economic and political uncertainties of Brexit. According to Savills London witnessed notably above average levels of office take-up in 2018 and achieved the best ever City of London rent (£80 per sq ft). The list of global businesses committing to long term leases has continued to grow with announcements in the last 12 months from Facebook, LinkedIn and Sidley Austin. The constrained development pipeline has seen more office pre-lets over 50,000 sq ft agreed in 2018 than ever before, while a shortage of available Grade A options has matured into a greater number of development opportunities. Savills also predicts a greater number of value-add and development opportunities coming to the market and that trading in London will insure the ongoing creation of the world’s best office buildings in a city where people will continue to want to work. This in turn creates new investment opportunities for global investors searching for prime assets.
The European property sector is predicted to grow next year, according to CBRE’s 2019 EMEA Market Outlook report. Although recent indicators suggest some slowing of momentum economic growth in Europe will remain above-trend rate in 2019 and 2020, with Spain, Ireland and the central European countries expected to see the fastest economic growth. France’s growth is expected to accelerate as recent economic reforms begin to pay off; however, UK growth is expected to remain below-trend, but with better long-term potential once the current uncertainty around Brexit passes. Office markets around the region are expected to see positive growth in leasing levels in 2019. However, major European cities, including Paris, Berlin, Stockholm and London, are expected to see lower levels of employment growth in office-using sectors. 
December 17, 2018
Don’t be a turkey, get on the commercial property gravy train
by Jo Sutherland • Comment, Property
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