January 31, 2019
Political uncertainty continues to hold back UK commercial property market
The Q4 2018 RICS UK Commercial Property Market Survey results continue to display mixed fortunes with changing shopping habits and uncertainty around politics remaining strong influences. The retail sector, with declines driven by the structural shifts in consumer preferences, is in stark contrast to the strong performance of the industrial sector over the quarter. In Q4 all-sector occupier demand declined for the third consecutive quarter, as the net balance moved down to -13% from -9% previously. The headline reading continues to be weighed down by declines in demand across the retail sector (net balance -58%), although the Q4 results also point to a slight decline in demand for office space (net balance -9%). At the same time, demand continued to rise in the industrial sector, with a net balance of +21% of respondents noting an increase in demand over the period.
Well over a third (40 percent) of UK businesses have experienced a cyber security breach or attack in the last 12 months, according to new government figures as it announces the UK is set to become a world leader in the race to eradicate some of the most damaging cyber security threats. The Business Secretary Greg Clark has promised that increased security and protections will be built into digital devices and online services with the help of up to £70 million in government investment through the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and backed by further investment from industry.
Investment in Central London offices totalled £5bn in the final quarter of 2018, bringing the year-end total to £17.6bn, a 10 percent rise from 2017 and the highest level since 2014, according to data from CBRE. The final quarter of 2018 saw a 16 percent quarterly rise in investment volumes compared to Q3 2018 and a 69 percent increase on Q4 2017. Over the course of the year, five deals over £500m transacted, including the £1bn sale of 5 Broadgate to CK Asset Holdings and the £1.3bn sale of leaseback of Goldman Sachs’ new European HQ. Whilst none of these larger transactions completed in the final quarter of 2018, Q4 was the most active of the year in terms of number of deals transacted. A total of 65 deals completed in the final quarter of 2018, highlighting the persistent demand for assets in Europe’s principal gateway city. The largest investment transaction in Q4 2018 was the £400m+ sale of 30 Gresham Street to Wing Tai and Manhattan Group from Samsung.
