March 27, 2018
Ageing population and low fertility rate is leading to European labour force shortage
Europe faces an increasing labour force shortage, which means that between 2017 and 2025, 184 out of 263 metropolitan areas from the EU-28 will record a negative growth rate in their working age population. According to a recent analysis by GlobalData this is due to a combination of lower fertility rates across most European Union (EU) countries, which is causing a reduction the growth rates of the youth population, while increased life expectancy is leading to a steady rise in the growth of the elderly population. But according to Ramnivas Mundada, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, ‘‘Measures such as increasing the levels of post-retirement employment opportunities, offering more support for women returning to the workplace and investing in youth employment, education and training could help to mitigate the impact of these demographic changes over the long term.’’
A new report a new report by the Centre for Ageing Better has called for government and employers to support older workers to stay in work for longer, help those who have fallen out of work involuntarily to return and to create workplaces that work for all, irrespective of age. The report claims that ensuring older workers are able to stay in good quality employment is essential to the future of the UK economy and will relieve pressure on public finances. It makes some key recommendations that include access to flexible working hours and workplace adaptations to help people manage pressures such as caring responsibilities and health conditions, which become more prevalent with age. It also calls for equality of opportunities in the workplace as older workers in the UK experience age discrimination in recruitment and progression. They are less likely to be offered opportunities for development – across the whole of the OECD only Turkey and Slovenia have lower levels of on-the-job training for older workers than the UK. Research shows they are also the most likely to be stuck on low pay and feel most insecure about their jobs.
Demand for labour is likely to remain relatively strong in the near-term which is one of the main reasons why employers support a national approach to tackling the UK’s skill and labour shortages post-Brexit, in comparison with a regional or sectoral one. According to the latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook from the CIPD and The Adecco Group the preference for a national labour or skills shortage occupation scheme reflects the main reason given by organisations for employing EU nationals, which is that they have difficulty finding local applicants to fill lower skilled roles, as cited by 18 percent of employers. The national survey of more than 2,000 employers found that the relative majority of employers (41 percent) would prefer a UK-wide immigration system that is based on national labour or skill shortage occupations in the likely event of migration restrictions once the UK leaves the European Union. In contrast, around one in ten (13 percent) favour a sector-based policy and just 5 percent would back a regional policy.
There have been 18 months of faltering net effective rents within the commercial office market in the Capital since the Brexit referendum, with ten of the 18 Central London office submarkets monitored in Cluttons’ latest London Office Market Outlook report registering rent falls in the final quarter of 2017, buoyed by additional incentives such as contributions to fit out costs and even delayed completions becoming commonplace in many locations. The report also raises concerns about the potential for an oversupply of serviced offices within the Capital. However, despite this and a perception that Central London offices are currently fully prices or possibly over-priced, by both occupiers and domestic investors, London remains a resilient city, continuing to attract high volumes of overseas capital. Employment growth is of course expected to be influenced by both the levels of GDP growth during 2018 and the Brexit divorce proceedings, which in turn will affect rental values. But says the report, aside from concerns over Brexit, there is no evidence from recruitment agencies to suggest a current, or planned exodus of finance and banking professionals from the City.
