November 10, 2017
Brexit thought to be the main culprit for job market attrition and ‘dual’ economy
There are ongoing dual narratives in UK economy caused by the 2016 Brexit vote, the latest Morgan McKinley October Employment Monitor suggests. On the one hand, a new report by Colliers International dubbed London Europe’s top economic City. On the other hand, institutions are stubbornly stuck in limbo, and the fear of major jobs losses looms thick in the sky, keeping hiring low. “The economic tug of war that Brexit kicked off means we still have no idea quite where we’ll land,” said Hakan Enver, Operations Director, Morgan McKinley Financial Services. October was the lowest jobs month of 2017, a possible indication that the closing months of the year will be especially quiet. Job seekers increased by 6 percent month-on-month, but were down just under 40 percent year-on-year. The trajectories are in line with the overall dual trends of 2017. Jobs available were down 14 percent month-on-month and 20 percent year-on-year. Given the underlying health of the economy, Brexit looks to be the main culprit for the job market attrition.













Commercial property occupiers remain cautious about the future, and hard data indicates that demand has, so far, been largely unaffected by Brexit, claims a new report from the British Council for Offices (BCO) . ‘Brexit and its Potential Impact on Office Demand’, examines how Brexit might impact on demand for office space on a national and regional basis through to 2022. According to the report, almost one year on from the Brexit vote the situation is one of uncertainty, feeding through to slower growth, with ‘an almost palpable sense that choppy waters lie ahead, particularly with regard to trade and movement of labour’. However, businesses continue to make long-term investments in the national economy and even in the City, some large investment banks have committed to large new office buildings. There is much variation in the relative performance of the UK’s major office centres, though, with some expanding and others apparently in decline.
One in three (31 percent) commercial real estate investors say that the UK remains their preferred region to invest in, with a figure that has remained the same since June 2016 despite the UK deciding to leave the European Union in that period. While a quarter (24 percent) of real estate investors favour Germany as their location of choice for commercial real estate opportunities; however, according to the latest BrickVest commercial property investment barometer this represented a fall from 28 percent in June 2016. More than one in five (21 percent) selected the US, the same as last June, while France saw an increase from 13 percent in June 2016 to 15 percent in June this year. The Barometer also revealed that French, German and US investors are more favourable towards the UK since June last year. Nearly a quarter (24 percent) of French, a fifth (19 percent) of German and 23 percent of US investors suggested they prefer the UK in June this year, representing an increase from last year across the board from 22 percent, 18 percent and 20 percent respectively.








