Employers are indicating strong employment intentions for the third quarter of 2021, with confidence surpassing pre-pandemic levels to hit a nine year high. This is the key finding of the latest quarterly CIPD Labour Market Outlook (LMO) survey, involving more than 2,000 employers and covering all sectors of the economy. The survey claims that its net employment intentions figure, which measures the difference between the proportion of employers expecting to add jobs and those planning to cut them, has risen for the fourth consecutive quarter. The figure now sits at +32, up from +27 last quarter, marking the strongest employer intentions seen since tracking began in Winter 2012/13. More →

New analysis by economists at PwC claims that, if the UK could match Sweden in terms of its employment rates for women aged 25-54, older workers and the proportion of its young people not in employment, education or training, the potential boost to UK GDP could be as much as 12 percent, or around £250 billion at 2018 values. Although the UK labour market has been strong in recent years – the employment rate is at a record high of over 75 percent and unemployment is at its lowest level since the mid 1970s – new research from PwC indicates that performance is middling compared to other OECD economies. A new composite Labour Market Performance index, combining results from PwC’s Youth Employment, Golden Age and Women in Work indices, finds the UK is 19th overall amongst OECD countries. Iceland and Sweden top the combined index rankings based on the latest available annual data for 2018. More →

A sudden reversal in the growth in the number of both EU and non-EU migrants in employment in the UK could hit employer plans to take on more staff and worsen skills and labour shortages, according to the latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook from the CIPD and The Adecco Group. While the net employment balance – a measure of the difference between the proportion of employers who expect to increase staff levels and those who expect to decrease staff levels – has remained extremely positive at +22 (compared to +23 in Q3 2018), among employers which currently have vacancies, seven in ten (70 percent) report that at least some of their vacancies are proving hard-to-fill, higher than in Summer 2018 (66 percent) and Spring 2018 (61 percent).  More →

A noticeable fall in the flow of EU nationals into the UK has coincided with a drop in the quantity and suitability of job applicants being reported by employers, the latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook from the CIPD and the Adecco Group has revealed. The data suggests that while the short-term outlook for employment remains strong, labour and skills shortages are finally starting to bite, with evidence that the number of applicants per vacancy has dropped across all roles (low, medium and high-skill) since summer 2017. This strong demand for labour is finally increasing recruitment pressures for employers, exacerbated by a ‘supply shock’ of far fewer EU nationals coming into the UK. According to the latest official data, the number of EU-born workers in the UK increased by just 7,000 between Q1 2017 and Q1 2018, compared with an increase of 148,000 from Q1 2016 to Q1 2017. This represents a fall of 95 percent and has fed into a tightening of the labour market. The report also found that while wage growth for the wider workforce is set to remain at around 2 percent for the foreseeable future, new starters and key staff may be more likely to be getting a salary increase.

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Europe faces an increasing labour force shortage, which means that between 2017 and 2025, 184 out of 263 metropolitan areas from the EU-28 will record a negative growth rate in their working age population. According to a recent analysis by GlobalData this is due to a combination of lower fertility rates across most European Union (EU) countries, which is causing a reduction the growth rates of the youth population, while increased life expectancy is leading to a steady rise in the growth of the elderly population. But according to Ramnivas Mundada, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, ‘‘Measures such as increasing the levels of post-retirement employment opportunities, offering more support for women returning to the workplace and investing in youth employment, education and training could help to mitigate the impact of these demographic changes over the long term.’’

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Demand for labour is likely to remain relatively strong in the near-term which is one of the main reasons why employers support a national approach to tackling the UK’s skill and labour shortages post-Brexit, in comparison with a regional or sectoral one. According to the latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook from the CIPD and The Adecco Group the preference for a national labour or skills shortage occupation scheme reflects the main reason given by organisations for employing EU nationals, which is that they have difficulty finding local applicants to fill lower skilled roles, as cited by 18 percent of employers. The national survey of more than 2,000 employers found that the relative majority of employers (41 percent) would prefer a UK-wide immigration system that is based on national labour or skill shortage occupations in the likely event of migration restrictions once the UK leaves the European Union. In contrast, around one in ten (13 percent) favour a sector-based policy and just 5 percent would back a regional policy.

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