July 28, 2016
Brexit ‘passporting’ rights will affect City office property market 0
Occupier demand for commercial offices may cool as a result of the Brexit vote, with recruitment and expansion slowing, particularly in central London, according to the latest UK property snapshot from Colliers. However, despite the current economic and political climate, unique and premium properties in the City of London should remain insulated against downward rental pressures, as landlords remain bullish on rents and incentives for the best quality units; while given the low vacancy environment and anticipated constraints on new supply, new Grade A offices are still set to perform well. Average net effective rents in the West End are set to fall over the next 6-12 months, but with new supply already below trend and potential speculative schemes being delayed, downward pressure may be short-lived. For the future, retaining ‘passporting’ rights to the single market will be an important issue for the City during Brexit negotiations. To view the full report click here.
July 19, 2016
UK should avoid severe recession and property crash after Brexit vote 0
by Mark Eltringham • Comment, Knowledge, News, Property
UK growth had already eased from around 3 percent in 2014 to around 2 percent before the EU referendum due primarily to slower global growth, but the Brexit vote to leave the EU is likely to lead to a significant further slowdown. UK GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1.6 percent in 2016 and 0.6 percent in 2017 according to PwC’s main scenario in its latest UK Economic Outlook report. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth could fall to close to zero in late 2016 and early 2017 in this main scenario, but is then projected to recover gradually later in 2017 as the immediate post-referendum shock starts to fade. The UK would avoid recession in this scenario, although the report notes that uncertainties around this view are significant, with alternative scenarios showing GDP growth in 2017 of anywhere between +1.5 percent and -1 percent. But even this latter relatively pessimistic scenario would not be a severe recession of the kind seen in the early 1980s or in 2008-9.
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