August 15, 2017
Job vacancies are on the rise, but pay and productivity remains stagnant
UK employment is predicted to grow strongly in the third quarter of 2017, but wage growth is likely to remain weak, according to the latest CIPD/The Adecco Group Labour Market Outlook. Although the UK labour market remains buoyant, basic pay award expectations for the next 12 months remain at just 1 percent. Put against the backdrop of poor productivity growth, the report points to an increase in labour supply over the past year as a key factor behind the modest pay projection. This is driven by relatively sharp increases in the number of non-UK nationals from the EU, ex-welfare claimants and 50-64 year olds. This increase in labour supply may explain why the jobs market remains challenging for some jobseekers, especially those seeking lower-skilled jobs. Employers report a median number of 24 applicants for the last low-skilled vacancy they tried to fill, compared with 19 candidates for the last medium-skilled vacancy and eight applicants for the last high-skilled vacancy they were seeking to fill. Overall, employers felt that around half of applicants were suitable for each role they were trying to fill.














Commercial property occupiers remain cautious about the future, and hard data indicates that demand has, so far, been largely unaffected by Brexit, claims a new report from the British Council for Offices (BCO) . ‘Brexit and its Potential Impact on Office Demand’, examines how Brexit might impact on demand for office space on a national and regional basis through to 2022. According to the report, almost one year on from the Brexit vote the situation is one of uncertainty, feeding through to slower growth, with ‘an almost palpable sense that choppy waters lie ahead, particularly with regard to trade and movement of labour’. However, businesses continue to make long-term investments in the national economy and even in the City, some large investment banks have committed to large new office buildings. There is much variation in the relative performance of the UK’s major office centres, though, with some expanding and others apparently in decline.


Three quarters (75 percent) of businesses expect to increase the number of high-skilled roles over the coming years, but 61 percent fear that there will be a lack of sufficiently skilled people to fill them. This is according to the 2017 CBI/Pearson Education and Skills Survey which highlighted that 62 percent see strong competition for candidates with appropriate qualifications as the most widespread cause of skills shortage, followed by a lack of candidates with appropriate qualifications (55 percent). According to the report, while the Brexit debate generates plenty of heat, ‘it’s the white heat of technological change that will mean huge change to the jobs of 2030’. Add that to the obvious question about what skills we’ll need to ‘home grow’ in the absence of free labour movement, and the skills gap is brought into sharper relief argues the report.








