The ‘M25’ office market returned to pre-recessionary levels in 2015 as take-up reached 4.25 million sq ft, which is the highest recorded figure since 2007. Given the higher levels of demand in the regional commercial property market, take-up is predicted to reach 4.5 million sq ft for 2016. The research by Savills claims that the ‘Western Sector’ was the strongest performer in the market within the M25 during 2015, where 1.91 million sq ft was transacted, which accounted for 44 percent of total take-up. Improving economic conditions combined with a reduction in grade B and C office space, due to permitted development rights, meant that 62 percent of space transacted was for grade A space. Total supply currently stands at 18.34 million sq ft, which is a 7 percent decrease from 2014, not helped by the fact that approximately one million sq ft of office space has been converted to residential uses since 2014.

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The diminishing availability of office space across the US is creating challenges for major occupiers, according to a new report from CBRE. An improving economy and subsequent increase in office demand along with the slow commencement of new construction has led to a shortage of large blocks of available office space in some major cities, including Philadelphia, San Francisco and Manhattan. While construction activity began to increase recently, with many constrained central office markets having new projects under construction, heavy pre-leasing activity means that the increased supply is often not enough to meet demand from large space users. Among downtown markets in the third quarter of 2015, the fewest total available large blocks (defined as 100,000 square feet or more of contiguous space) in existing and under-construction buildings were in Philadelphia (six), San Francisco (seven) and South Manhattan (ten).

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Competition for office space and investment assets in Paris remains strong, on the back of healthy economic growth, with GDP in the country expected to grow by 1.1 percent this year, and a further 1.4 percent in 2016, after three years of subdued growth. Following a relatively weak performance in the first quarter of 2015, office leasing in Île-de-France recovered in the third quarter, with annual take-up forecast to again exceed 2 million sq m.  Though demand remains high, rents have been left unaffected, further increasing the desirability of the market. Limited development will continue to restrict occupier activity – the development pipeline for the next two years has reduced, with much of the new stock likely to be pre-leased before completion. Heena Kerai, International Research Analyst at Knight Frank, commented: “Occupier and investor confidence will remain positive and despite stock limitations, we can expect both markets to put in a strong performance in the coming quarters.”

European office take-up will rise by 10 percent in 2016 with this rise in office demand expected to encourage increased development over the next 12 months, according to the Knight Frank European Commercial Property Outlook 2016. Development activity is likely to be shaped by the current polarisation of office demand, with occupier interest most strongly focused on prime city centre space, while older and less well-located offices will struggle to attract tenants. With prime commercial space in short supply in cities such as London, Paris, Dublin, Frankfurt and Madrid, occupiers seeking large centrally-located offices currently have very limited choices. However, in cities such as Amsterdam and Brussels, vacancy rates remain relatively high for Grade B offices and secondary locations, so as a result, the European commercial property market will step up the redevelopment of such properties.

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