August 5, 2016

UK commercial property market hits record high but Brexit uncertainty lingers ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Cities, News, Property

The UK commercial property sector is now larger than at any time since before the last recession, claims a new analysis from the Investment Property Forum. It has risen nearly 50 percent since its lowest point in 2009 and is now valued at £871 billion, an increase of around 11 percent. The amount of stock actually shrank last year, according to the study, with the increase in overall value arising from price rises. The previous highest valuation the IPF puts on the market was £865 billion in 2006. All is not good news however as a second report from the same organisation which explores sentiment in the market following the Brexit vote confirms there is a great deal of uncertainty in the market. This is particularly acute in the London market which makes up over a third of the nation’s total and is increasingly dominated by foreign owners who may have a negative response to the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Intriguingly, the report found that total floorspace marginally declined over 2015 and has only increased by 0.9 percent since the market high of 2006.

August 2, 2016

Seven workplace stories we like and think you should read this week ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Architecture, Comment, News, Property, Workplace, Workplace design

1 The next big thing in office design is not what you think but is certainly a sign of the times, according to a story in Inc; it is bullet proof office screens. 2 An exhibition in London offers up spectral images of abandoned buildings from the Soviet era. 3 We’ve been saying for a while that Millennials don’t exist as a separate species, but perhaps not as powerfully as Adam Conover does in this talk delivered, ironically, at a conference focused on marketing to Millennials 4 Maybe the UK Government has finally discovered that an awful lot of people live outside London as it announces the creation of three large civil service ‘hubs’ in Liverpool, Leeds and Manchester. 5 Philip Tidd of Gensler powerfully offers up an inconvenient truth for the UK workplace. 6 More evidence that the Brexit vote was largely a general protest vote rather than a specifically anti-EU vote from the What Works Centre for Wellbeing. 7 A letter to the FT from construction industry leaders urges the UK to maintain its role as a leader in tackling climate change.

August 1, 2016

Smart cities will play essential role in meeting future energy demand ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Cities, Environment, News, Property, Technology

The changing energy demands of British cities are revealed in a new report published by Smart Energy GB and the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The report’s central claim is that urbanisation, economic growth and new technology will drive cities to meet their energy demands with the greater use of sustainable and renewable sources. The authors claim that this is the first time that predictions about increases in energy demand in the UK have been analysed and published on a city level. The Powering Future Cities report suggests that this growing demand will primarily be driven by urban population growth, economic growth and a predicted surge in use of new technology, including electric vehicles. The report coincides with an announcement that the World Green Building Council has created a new partnership with the World Resources Institute-led Building Efficiency Accelerator (BEA) to fast-track improvements to energy efficiency within buildings.

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July 28, 2016

Brexit ‘passporting’ rights will affect City office property market ⁰

by Sara Bean • Facilities management, News, Property

Occupier demand for commercial offices may cool as a result of the Brexit vote, with recruitment and expansion slowing, particularly in central London, according to the latest UK property snapshot from Colliers. However, despite the current economic and political climate, unique and premium properties in the City of London should remain insulated against downward rental pressures, as landlords remain bullish on rents and incentives for the best quality units; while given the low vacancy environment and anticipated constraints on new supply, new Grade A offices are still set to perform well. Average net effective rents in the West End are set to fall over the next 6-12 months, but with new supply already below trend and potential speculative schemes being delayed, downward pressure may be short-lived. For the future, retaining ‘passporting’ rights to the single market will be an important issue for the City during Brexit negotiations. To view the full report click here.

July 25, 2016

Businesses worldwide ready to welcome robots into workplace ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Property, Technology, Workplace

Businesses are ready to embrace the new era of robot workers, automation and artificial intelligence, according to a new report. The Robotic Workforce Research study by AI specialists Genfour claims that more than half of respondents globally are ready to embrace the arrival of robots in the workplace. Almost half of respondents believe that between 10 and 30 percent could be subject to automation. Across all businesses in the UK and US, 94 percent responded that they would either embrace robots or felt a robotic future would be inevitable. Almost half (46 per cent) of UK businesses say they are set to welcome robots at work. A similar proportion (47 per cent) believe it is inevitable, and a third (32 per cent) believe they’ll be able to automate as much as 20 per cent of their business as soon as the technology becomes available. Just seven per cent are worried robots would steal jobs and 16 per cent currently have not planned automation.

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July 25, 2016

China raises retirement age as workforce set to fall by a quarter by 2050 ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Flexible working, News, Property, Workplace

A rapidly ageing workforce is not just a challenge for Western economies. The government of China, the world’s second largest economy, has announced that it expects its workforce to decline by nearly a quarter (23 percent) between now and 2050 as the population ages and more and more jobs are automated. The Government is now considering raising the retirement age from 59 to 65 ahead of an anticipated sharp decline in the numbers of people of working age after 2030, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. A spokesman for the ministry forecast a fall of 211 million people of working age to 700 million by 2050. China’s demographic challenge is mirrored in many countries but has its own characteristics thanks to its strict and controversial decades-long ‘one child’ policy‘ which it lifted last year. The country now has 220 million people over the age of 60, accounting for over 16 percent of its total population at the same time that its previously stellar economic growth has shown signs of slowing.

July 25, 2016

Office of the future? + Vaping room call + UK will avoid Brexit recession ⁰

by Sara Bean • Cities, Facilities management, Flexible working, News, Property, Technology, Workplace

In this week’s Newsletter; Mark Eltringham on the narrow focus in descriptions of the ‘office of the future’; Maciej Markowski argues the need to keep an open mind on the open plan office; and Neil Franklin finds the ethics of everyday working life are the subject of two new surveys. News of a new device that can store more data than ever; many employees believe their workplace is not making best use of latest technology; and a new research report focuses on smart cities and the future of the built environment. Public Health England advises employers to set up vaping rooms for e-cigarette users; Brexit won’t lead to crash in commercial property say experts; and young workers are ill prepared for office politics. Download our new Briefing, produced in partnership with Boss Design on the link between culture and workplace strategy and design; visit our new events page, follow us on Twitter and join our LinkedIn Group to discuss these and other stories.

July 19, 2016

UK should avoid severe recession and property crash after Brexit vote ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Comment, Knowledge, News, Property

UK growth had already eased from around 3 percent in 2014 to around 2 percent before the EU referendum due primarily to slower global growth, but the Brexit vote to leave the EU is likely to lead to a significant further slowdown. UK GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1.6 percent in 2016 and 0.6 percent in 2017 according to PwC’s main scenario in its latest UK Economic Outlook report. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth could fall to close to zero in late 2016 and early 2017 in this main scenario, but is then projected to recover gradually later in 2017 as the immediate post-referendum shock starts to fade. The UK would avoid recession in this scenario, although the report notes that uncertainties around this view are significant, with alternative scenarios showing GDP growth in 2017 of anywhere between +1.5 percent and -1 percent. But even this latter relatively pessimistic scenario would not be a severe recession of the kind seen in the early 1980s or in 2008-9.

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July 15, 2016

ICE makes the case for infrastructure ahead of Brexit negotiations ⁰

by Neil Franklin • Cities, News, Property, Public Sector

In a new report Brexit – The Case for Infrastructure, the Institution of Civil Engineers has set out the business case for the valuable contribution which infrastructure makes to the economy and argues that the UK should not lose sight of this as it begins negotiations for Brexit as it leaves the European Union. The report claims that high quality, high performing infrastructure is vital for economic growth and improved quality of life. It points to transport, communications, energy and housing as being central to spreading opportunity across the whole country. It also makes the case that infrastructure acts as a catalyst for social and economic inclusion, encouraging greater participation in society from people of all walks of life. In particular, during uncertain or volatile economic times, continued investment in UK infrastructure can help provide economic stability, facilitate inward investment and drive economic growth.

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July 14, 2016

Google and LinkedIn reach agreement on enormous office swap ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • News, Property, Technology, Workplace design

In March, we reported on the stumbling blocks faced by Google in its plans to create a vast new home for itself in Silicon Valley, not least resistance from local authorities in California and the problems associated with neighbouring land owned by LinkedIn. Now, according to a report in the Silicon Valley Business Journal, it appears the noisy neighbours have come to a deal to swap large chunks of real estate. According to the report, Google will acquire all of LinkedIn’s existing land in the Mountain View area, which consists of LinkedIn’s existing 370,000-square-feet headquarters and eight acres of land LinkedIn had set aside for turning into new office space. LinkedIn will now relocate its headquarters to four office buildings in the area currently owned by Google to create a new 750,000 sq. ft. portfolio. The deal represents a win-win for both parties with LinkedIn doubling its existing space without the costly need to build new offices, while Google finally gets the chance to realise its dream of building the quirky campus designed by Heatherwick Studio and Bjarke Ingels.

July 12, 2016

Skyscrapers in London will be hardest hit by new business rates ⁰

by Sara Bean • Architecture, Cities, Facilities management, News, Property

As we reported yesterday there are plans afoot to surround the ‘Walkie Talkie’ winner of last year’s Carbuncle Cup with other tall building. However for organisations interested in occupying a London skyscraper it’s worth noting that according to Colliers, businesses in London’s twenty tallest skyscrapers can expect to pay an extra £50 million under forthcoming major changes to business rates. In a data analysis published recently, Colliers has assessed the likely effects of forthcoming business rates changes – floor-by-floor – on the occupiers of London’s twenty tallest buildings. Overall, firms will need to cough up an extra £50m as business rates bills go from £194m to £243m over the next three years. And the infamous ‘Walkie Talkie’ at 20 Fenchurch Street, and now fully occupied – will see the largest increase with office occupiers and luxury rooftop restaurants faced with a business rates bill of over £19m by 2019, an increase of £5.1m compared with current levels.

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July 11, 2016

London planning to hide Walkie Talkie with…more tall buildings? ⁰

by Mark Eltringham • Architecture, Cities, News, Property

It was Frank Lloyd Wright who said ‘a doctor can bury his mistakes but an architect can only advise his clients to plant vines’. His words will be ringing in the ears of London planners who have decided they need to do something about the blight of Rafael Viñoly’s reviled Walkie Talkie building at 20 Fenchurch Street, according to an article in the Architect’s Journal. The building was last year’s Carbuncle Cup winner and has been held responsible for creating wind tunnels in the streets at its base and even frying people, shops and cars around it with reflected solar rays. Remarkably, the solution offered by planners appears to be to surround it with other tall buildings to hide it (while also creating new office space). Gwyn Richards, head of design for London, told the AJ: ‘One issue that has been brought to our attention is whether it would be preferable to have the Walkie Talkie effectively moved into the cluster so that it is less assertive. We are hearing from stakeholders saying that it would benefit the cluster to bring it into a tightly knitted group.’