December 20, 2017
CIPD predicts tighter labour market and continued poor productivity next year
There is little evidence that the pay squeeze will end soon, with only falling inflation likely to lead to meaningful wage increases next year. This is according to a CIPD analysis, which predicts that 2018 will see pay, productivity and migration top the agenda as the UK looks ahead to its exit from the European Union. It adds that the UK workforce could tighten, and with increased constraints on labour supply, 2018 could be the year that the UK finally runs out of people to fill jobs, despite unemployment levels being unlikely to see much change. There are also indications there will be no improvement in productivity, with continued stagnation in UK productivity, which will remain well below pre-crash levels. In the CIPD’s annual labour market predictions, Ian Brinkley, Acting Chief Economist, anticipates a flattening of employment growth and weak pay growth as the UK continues to struggle with its productivity problem.
Most private sector workers are still not pushing for pay rises, despite falling real wages and low unemployment, according to the latest quarterly CIPD/The Adecco Group Labour Market Outlook survey. Only a quarter (24 percent) of employers in the private sector say they are under some or significant pressure to raise wages from the majority of their workforce, while almost four in ten private sector firms (38 percent) say they face no pressure at all to raise wages. The most common reason given by private sector employers (23 percent) for the lack of pressure to raise wages is a recognition among workers that the business cannot afford more generous pay increases, underlining the productivity challenge many firms face. The survey of more than 2,000 UK employers shows a slightly higher proportion of private sector employers (36 percent) cite either some or significant pay pressure to raise wages for certain roles, particularly among high and middle-skilled jobs.
Despite recent figures indicating that work productivity is down in Britain, the UK remains a highly attractive country for employers and employees based on a combination of talent, location, quality of life and cost, according to the latest edition of Colliers International’s European Cities of Influence report. The analysis of 50 major European economic cities for employers saw London retain its top position, with all other UK cities in the analysis featuring in the top 20 (Birmingham, Edinburgh, Manchester, Bristol and Glasgow).The report finds that quality of life factors are important to accelerate business and attract talent with the research revealing that the nature of workplace strategy is evolving so rapidly that keeping up — let alone staying ahead of the curve — can be a challenge. Employers are now focused on creating a workplace that can attract and retain talent by incorporating co-working and collaborative facilities, flexible working options and ingraining a healthy mindset. With the onus on keeping employees happy and productive, the design and utilization of the workplace is helping to accelerate business productivity more than ever before.
The London office market remains a buoyant market despite Brexit uncertainty, as many organisations see it as the most prestigious location for businesses of any size. In 
Businesses are concerned about the pace of commitment to improving the UK’s infrastructure, and a record number of firms are dissatisfied with the state of infrastructure in their region. With the UK currently ranking 27th in the world for the quality of its infrastructure, nearly all (96 percent) of businesses in the 2017 CBI/AECOM Infrastructure Survey see infrastructure as important (of which 55 percent view it as critical) to the Government’s agenda. From the Clean Growth Strategy and the £500 billion infrastructure pipeline to its decision to build a new runway at Heathrow and press ahead with the A303 tunnel, the Government has made clear its commitment to British infrastructure. However, only one in five firms is satisfied with the pace of delivery (20 percent) and almost three quarters (74 percent) doubt infrastructure will improve over this Parliament. This lack of confidence is attributed primarily to policy inconsistency (+94 percent of firms) & political risk (+86 percent). The digital sector is the exception, however, where 59 percent of firms are confident of improvements.
