July 19, 2016
UK should avoid severe recession and property crash after Brexit vote 0
UK growth had already eased from around 3 percent in 2014 to around 2 percent before the EU referendum due primarily to slower global growth, but the Brexit vote to leave the EU is likely to lead to a significant further slowdown. UK GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1.6 percent in 2016 and 0.6 percent in 2017 according to PwC’s main scenario in its latest UK Economic Outlook report. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth could fall to close to zero in late 2016 and early 2017 in this main scenario, but is then projected to recover gradually later in 2017 as the immediate post-referendum shock starts to fade. The UK would avoid recession in this scenario, although the report notes that uncertainties around this view are significant, with alternative scenarios showing GDP growth in 2017 of anywhere between +1.5 percent and -1 percent. But even this latter relatively pessimistic scenario would not be a severe recession of the kind seen in the early 1980s or in 2008-9.
There is an ancient Asian parable which has found its way into a number of cultures including Hindu and Buddhist lore. In one version, the Buddha tells of a king who has nine blind men summoned to his palace. An elephant is brought in and they are asked to describe it. Each man feels a different part of the elephant and describes it to the king. In turn they tell him it is a pot (the man who feels the head), a winnowing basket (ear), a ploughshare (tusk), a plough (trunk), a granary (body), a pillar (foot), a mortar (back), a pestle (tail) or a brush (tip of the tail). They disagree violently with each other to the amusement of the king, and the Buddha surmises that ‘in their ignorance they are by nature quarrelsome, wrangling, and disputatious, each maintaining reality is thus and thus.’ Around 2,500 years later, groups of people continue to describe big things solely based on the bits with which they come into contact and bicker with others who are close to other bits.
There is no doubt that the UK’s office based knowledge industry is facing a crisis in the form of a ‘wellbeing deficit’. Both the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and Health and Safety Executive (HSE) have reported record levels of absenteeism, with the latter attributing 23.3 million lost working days to work-related ill-health, such as depression, stress, anxiety and musculoskeletal disorders. A great deal is already known about the causes of the key issues of employee stress and demotivation, but more work needs to be done to establish how organisations can meet their corporate goals with regard to these issues, whilst still engaging, motivating and nurturing their workforce. A significant body of published research has identified that a sense of ‘personal control’ can have a hugely positive impact on employee wellbeing, but how can we engender that control when it comes to creating a productive working environment?
Tim Peake’s recent return home from space at the end of a six month stay in the International Space Station highlighted just how essential it is for people to stay in contact with their friends, family and the rest of the world, literally from wherever they may be. Of course, back on Earth we now take it for granted that we are in a state of constant connectedness to the rest of the world. So the idea of someone being out of contact, even for brief periods of time, strikes us as odd. Perhaps that partly explains our fascination with the experiences of astronauts and other people who cannot take connectivity for granted. But it’s not just astronauts who have to consider how to enjoy the connectedness that we normally assume to be ours by right. People who work at sea face the same challenge and you could argue that it is more important for such truly remote workers to be in contact with other people and the Internet. So who fares better when it comes to achieving connectivity?
July 20, 2016
We need to keep a more open mind about open plan office design
by Maciej Markowski • Comment, Facilities management, Workplace design
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